🔗 Share this article Trump Supporters Backing Zohran Mamdani and a New Progressive Alliance: Key Unexpected Outcomes from New York’s Election Just 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, but block by block. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys. He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent. Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results How was your election night? It was necessary because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of votes that came in later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning. You know, it was possible where election day went somewhat badly for him, in which the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani gained half a million votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round. Expanding Support How did the mayor-elect get additional support from? He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal. He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant? It’s definitely a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously backed Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists. Turnout and Impact A major development of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited? Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory. You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that? Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it so then no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor. Republican Collapse The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support plummeted. He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand. The “Commie Corridor” Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens? In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there was some opposition. However no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods. Jewish Voters In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did? There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads. Long-Term Significance Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates? Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally. But I think that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.