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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

But the latest field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's up against five other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still