Everyday Homicides in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Figures

The mean number of daily homicides each month in the country has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to recent government statistics. Nevertheless, security specialists have warned that murder numbers might not indicate improved countrywide safety.

Notable Decline in Daily Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in last November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This data was shared by the head of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen over these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that last month the lowest amount of murders were registered for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Intense cartel infighting, combined with the government’s heavily military operations to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than the United States. However, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President stated: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central elements of the President's security plan include:

  • Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
  • Improving intelligence and investigation work.
  • Greater collaboration between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts warned that focusing solely on homicide statistics to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is notably true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and think: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia FarfĂĄn-MĂ©ndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico EvalĂșa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not valid for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico EvalĂșa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to correctly identify and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] 
 have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it might mask days when there were notably spiking levels of killings.

“Using the per-day mean makes spikes of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

But despite these efforts, Mexico is still beset by extreme bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-related violence. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and across the nation to express their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” Vargas concluded.
John Pittman
John Pittman

A seasoned casino analyst with over a decade of experience in gaming strategies and industry insights.

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