🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Trader Earned $436K on Wagers on Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro immediately preceding it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be out of power by the close of the month increased in the time leading up to President Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that the president had been taken into custody. One account, which became a member in December and took four positions, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $436,000 from a initial bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Trading information shows that users assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But the market's assessment had jumped to eleven percent by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the morning of Saturday, indicating a sudden change in betting activity immediately prior to the official statement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a trade based on confidential knowledge," said an industry expert. A small number of other traders also profited significant sums from similar wagers. Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges Politicians are beginning to pay attention. A bill introduced on Monday would prevent public officials from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the United States, with traders able to predict everything from elections to politics. The industry faced scrutiny under the previous administration. However it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate. Trading on insider information is against the law in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market industry. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."